The Week in Data, Oct 5 to 11: Hawkish Fed Minutes Hit Crypto While Stocks Set Highs

Bitcoin spent two days above $85,000 and the rest of the week giving ground. It opened at $86,507, closed at $83,676, and bottomed at $80,329 on Thursday: a 3.3 percent weekly loss and a 7.6 percent round trip from Monday's high. Ether and solana fell harder, down 7.0 and 8.5 percent.

The pivot was Wednesday, October 7, when the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September 15 to 16 meeting. Officials had raised the target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, and most participants thought another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Crypto repriced immediately. Equities did not: SPY closed the week up 1.2 percent. Two risk complexes read the same document and reached opposite conclusions.

Markets

Weekly figures: Kraken daily candles, Monday October 5 to Sunday October 11 UTC.

Asset	Open	Close	High	Low	Change
BTC	$86,506.60	$83,675.60	$86,973.60	$80,328.60	-3.27%
ETH	$2,726.03	$2,534.19	$2,737.16	$2,405.35	-7.04%
SOL	$121.57	$111.22	$122.04	$105.57	-8.51%

Thursday did the damage. Bitcoin's candle ran from $83,276 down to $80,329 on the week's heaviest volume, 4,015 BTC on Kraken's USD book against 490 BTC on the quiet Saturday. Ether's drawdown from Monday's high to Thursday's low was 12.1 percent, solana's 13.5 percent. Both recovered part of it over the weekend.

Flows line up. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $678.9 million of net outflows over October 5 to 9 per Farside data calculated by The Defiant, reversing $241.1 million of inflows the week before.

Sentiment is the odd reading. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index started at 70 and ended at 61, peaking at 73 Tuesday and troughing at 59 Friday. Every day of a week that took bitcoin to $80,329 printed a Greed classification. It never came close to Fear.

Equities went the other way. SPY closed Friday October 9 at $778.57 against $769.64 the prior Friday, up 1.16 percent. QQQ managed $751.27 against $749.58, up 0.23 percent, held back by a 0.8 percent Thursday decline mirroring crypto's worst day.

Treasury yields eased slightly despite the hawkish minutes. On the US Treasury par yield curve, the 10 year finished at 5.24 percent against 5.28 percent the prior Friday, 4 basis points lower, after touching 5.31 percent Monday. The 2 year fell 3 basis points to 4.80 percent, the 30 year 3 basis points to 5.60 percent, and the 2s10s spread held at 44 basis points.

Positioning

Hyperliquid open interest totalled $12.26 billion across 178 markets at the time of writing, up 0.57 percent over the prior 24 hours. Bitcoin was the largest book at $3.18 billion, or 38,333 BTC, with 24 hour open interest flat at -0.03 percent. Ether held $2.81 billion, or 1,107,334 ETH, down 1.51 percent on the day even as the price rose 1.25 percent, which reads as positions closing into strength rather than new longs. HYPE was third at $1.73 billion, SOL fourth at $673 million, and funding on the majors sat at a mildly positive 0.00125 percent per hour. The venue keeps about a day of history, so there is no weekly comparison to make.

The ETH/BTC ratio did the week's cleanest work, opening at 0.031512 and closing at 0.030286, a 3.9 percent fall. At the time of writing it had recovered to 0.030556, still 3.0 percent below a week earlier.

Prediction markets

Polymarket's largest non sports books spent the week pricing the Fed and the Gulf. Odds are from the Polymarket API at the time of writing, with one week changes and volume as reported by the venue. See the prediction market glossary entry for how these resolve.

No change in Fed rates after the October meeting: 83 percent, up 2 points on the week, $1.24 million traded. The companion market on a 25 basis point hike sits at 17 percent, down 2 points. Between them they leave essentially nothing priced for a cut.
US announces end of the Iranian blockade by October 15: 4.3 percent, down 8.3 points, the week's largest move among the big books, on $2.09 million of volume. The version running to October 31 fell 9 points to 14 percent.
US and Iran ceasefire continues through October 31: 79 percent, up 6 points on $1.01 million.
Bitcoin dips to $45,000 by December 31: 4 percent, up 0.45 points. A bad week moved the tail risk almost not at all.

Across the Gulf books, traders pushed out the timeline rather than the destination: near dated questions collapsed while longer dated versions held up.

The planet

USGS counted 166 earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or greater in the Monday to Sunday window, of which 42 were M5.0+ and five were M6.0+.

One dominated the week. A magnitude 7.7 struck 12 km WSW of Pitaloza Arriba, Panama, on Friday October 9 at 17:56 UTC, at a shallow depth of 13 km. USGS assigned it a red PAGER alert, its highest impact category, and GDACS estimated 540,000 people exposed to shaking of intensity VI or above. Two more large shocks followed in the same zone: M6.6 near Rio Grande at 20:25 UTC Friday, and M6.0 near La Tronosa early Saturday, both yellow alerts.

Reported impact has so far come in well below what a red alert can imply. Officials cited by the Associated Press reported 27 injuries and no deaths as of Saturday, around 420 homes damaged, damage across all ten provinces, and a state of emergency declared. More than 100 aftershocks were logged, and a Pacific tsunami warning was issued then lifted. Those figures are preliminary.

Elsewhere: M6.3 northeast of Norsup, Vanuatu, on Thursday, rated Orange by GDACS with roughly 10,000 people exposed to intensity VII shaking, and M6.2 near Panguna, Papua New Guinea, on Sunday. GDACS carried Orange volcanic alerts for Taal from Thursday and Kanlaon from Saturday, both ongoing eruptions, plus Orange notifications for tropical cyclones SIMON-26 and ISAIAS-26. The Smithsonian weekly volcanic activity report was unavailable during this run, so volcano detail comes from GDACS alone.

Space

A quiet week on the pad: three orbital launches flew, all successful.

Date (UTC)	Provider	Vehicle	Mission
Oct 7	Korea Aerospace Research Institute	Nuri	NeonSat-2 to 6
Oct 9	China Aerospace Science and Technology	Long March 12	SatNet LEO Group 27
Oct 10	SpaceX	Falcon 9	SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer A

Three in a week is low by 2026 standards, and SpaceX flew only one. Korea's domestically built Nuri putting up five NeonSat smallsats was the more unusual entry.

The internet

GitHub had a bad week. Its own status page logged five incidents opened between Monday and Wednesday, four rated critical: an Actions incident Monday resolved at 22:49 UTC, a broad "several services are degraded" event Tuesday resolved at 23:40 UTC, and two separate Git Operations, Pull Requests and Actions incidents Wednesday, resolved at 16:25 and 18:04 UTC. A fifth, rated major, ran Monday into Tuesday. Four critical ratings in three days is unusual for one provider.

Cloudflare logged 17 incidents but only one rated major, a network performance problem in Columbus on Wednesday. OpenAI posted roughly 19, three of them major. Claude's status page carried four major incidents: Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on Monday, Opus 5.5 on Tuesday, and the developer platform on Wednesday.

On TerminalFeed's own plumbing, 114 of 116 checked feeds were live at the time of writing, two idle, none stalled or dark. The status page and live view carry the current state.

The week ahead

Wednesday October 14, 8:30 am ET: September CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After minutes in which officials cited worsening inflation risk, this is the week's load bearing print.
Tuesday October 13: SpaceX Falcon 9 carrying Dragon CRS-2 SpX-35 to the ISS, listed Go, plus Starlink Group 15-25.
Thursday October 15: Falcon 9 with USSF-481, listed Go, and the resolution date for Polymarket's October 15 Iranian blockade market.
Monday October 19: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries H3 with the Martian Moons eXploration mission, listed Go. Just outside the week, and the most interesting payload on the near schedule.
October 27 to 28: the next FOMC meeting, currently priced at 83 percent for no change.

Watch whether sentiment catches up with price. A week that knocked 3.3 percent off bitcoin and 7 percent off ether without once dragging the Fear and Greed Index out of Greed either means the drawdown was shallower than it felt, or the index is lagging. Wednesday's CPI will settle which.